Opinion
News Analysis: The Scud's echo from Beirut to Washington
by Ren Ke - xinhua, 28/04/2010
BEIRUT, April 27 (Xinhua) -- Reports suggesting that Syria has smuggled Scud missiles to Lebanese Shiite armed group Hezbollah fueled the already smoldering tension between Lebanon, Syria and Israel.
But the reports, which put a bigger spotlight on the arms of the Lebanese Shiite militia, also came at a time when Washington is encouraging Syria to play a positive role in the Middle East affairs.
THE STORY'S PATH
This round of war of words started when Israeli President Shimon Peres accused Syria two weeks ago of transferring long- range Scud missiles to Hezbollah.
Peres told Israel Radio that Syria claims that it wants peace while simultaneously delivering Scud missiles to Hezbollah, which he said is constantly threatening the security of the state of Israel.
The next day, U.S. daily Wall Street Journal quoted Israeli and U.S. officials as confirming Syria's move. While Kuwaiti daily Al- Rai said that officials in the U.S. administration were the ones who leaked suspicions that the Lebanese group had acquired the missiles from Syria.
The accusations against Syria provoked an alarming reaction in Washington. U.S. State Department warned Damascus last week, threatening that "all options are going to be on the table" to address Syria's action.
On the Syrian part, its immediate response suggested a "fear of war" in the Syrian capital. The government's statement, saying that the allegations were "fabrications," accused Israel of aiming to strain the atmosphere in the region.
Damascus' statement also accused the Jewish state of trying to set the stage for "Israeli aggression". Syria's presidential adviser Buthaina Shaaban said in remarks published on Monday that the missiles are too big to be moved undetected in a tiny country like Lebanon.
Andrew Brookes, director of London-based defense think tank Air League, told Xinhua that Hezbollah certainly does have the capability to transfer weapons and missiles from Syria to Lebanon.
His view is shared by Hady Amr, director of Brookings Doha Center. "Hezbollah's ability to receive weapons from Syria would depend on Damascus willingness to allow the weapons transfer," he said.
"It also depends on Hezbollah's ability to circumvent Lebanese border controls," Amr added.
Israel has always accused Hezbollah of smuggling weapons into southern Lebanon and stockpiling tens of thousands of rockets in the region.
SYRIA'S FEAR OF ISOLATION
The accusations against Syria complicated the U.S. administration's plans to appoint an ambassador to Damascus for the first time in five years. Washington voiced deep concern over the reports, and raised the issue with Syrian diplomats in Washington for several times.
U.S.-Syria diplomatic relations were once frozen when the former George W. Bush administration recalled its ambassador to Syria following the 2005 assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. Washington blamed it on Syria while Damascus denied the accusation.
However, the Obama administration, since it took office in January 2009, has been encouraging Syria to play a positive role in the Middle East affairs ranging from Iran's nuclear stalemate, Lebanon's stability and Iraq's security to the peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians.
In an article published on Monday in the Syrian daily Tishrin, the Syrian presidential adviser said that allegations against Damascus are aimed at undermining the country's improving relations with America.
Syria's isolation was growing since Rafic Hariri's assassination. But things began to change in July 2008, where leaders of 43 nations inaugurated "Union for the Mediterranean" in Paris, which was meant to bring Mediterranean countries together through practical projects.
Analysts say that Damascus fears now that the accusations against it could put an end to the western overture, which will place it again on the path of international isolation.
The western overture led in 2008 to resuming talks between Israel and Syria, which are technically still at war, under Turkish mediation, yet no breakthrough had been achieved before the process broke down once again when the Jewish state launched a destructive military operation against the Gaza Strip at the end of that year.
Brookes said that Hezbollah's capability to acquire Scud missiles forces Israel "to bring Syria into any long term resolution of the security problem."
TOWARDS A REGIONAL WAR?
Hezbollah who fought a devastating war with Israel in 2006 is accused by the Jewish state of stockpiling more than 40,000 rockets. The armed group backed by Iran and Syria has been able to strike cities in northern Israel with short-range missiles, but Scuds would allow it to attack Tel Aviv.
Amr told Xinhua that the Israeli concerns about the weapons transfer seemed at the very least to be legitimate concerns.
"Israel has been, and remains, very concerned about Hezbollah's ability to hit population centers in Israel with damaging materials," he said.
Hezbollah itself is now still silent over the issue, and refused to confirm or deny the Israeli accusations.
However, a member of the Shiite group's parliamentary bloc Hussein Haj Hassan told the party-sponsored al-Manar TV channel last week that "the group was always arming and preparing itself," adding that the kinds of weapons Hezbollah possesses "are none of Israel's business."
While Lebanese President Michel Suleiman described the reports as "Israeli fabrications," Prime Minister Saad Hariri also denied those reports, saying the allegations were concocted by Israel to threaten his country.
"These accusations are reminiscent of the weapons of mass destruction allegations against Saddam Hussein: they were never found, they did not exist," Hariri said last week in an interview with Italy's La Stampa newspaper.
Tension on Lebanon's borders with Israel has been on the rise in recent months. Israel said that the Lebanese government, not Hezbollah, will be solely responsible for any violence on the border, as Hezbollah now holds two seats in Lebanon's 30-seat government.
And in the Middle East where everything seems to be connected, analysts are wondering whether a new round of war of words will result in a regional conflict that involves Lebanon, Syria, Iran and Israel.
"In the context of tensions heating up between Iran and the United States over the nuclear issue, Israel will clearly want to clarify in advance with the international community how it can and should deal with Hezbollah's most powerful weaponry in the event that fighting breaks out," Amr said.
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